Disaster description
Indonesia: Drought - 2023-2024
The El Niño phenomenon has contributed to a prolonged dry season, resulting in crop failure and drought in the Agandugume and Lambewi sub-districts in Puncak District, Central Papua Province. An Emergency Response Status for drought events in the affected sub-districts was declared by the Regent of Puncak District, effective from 7 June to 7 August 2023. According to Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD District Puncak – Central Papua), some 7,500 people (1,800 families) are reportedly experiencing hunger as of 29 July. Essential aid, including food items, non-food items and emergency shelter kits have been distributed by the BPBD Puncak district authorities with support from the Indonesian National Army (TNI) and the Ministry of Social Affairs. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) estimates that this dry season will persist until September 2023. (OCHA, 2 Aug 2023)
According to BMKG, climate phenomena recorded in Pacific Ocean waters in May and June of 2023 triggered El Niño starting June, which further causing the region to feel warmer. Anomalies in Pacific Ocean temperatures have been growing, with the index reaching 0.8, concerningly close to the threshold of 1, at which point the El Niño status goes from “Weak” to “Moderate”. Currently, trends show a consistent increase and by the end of August El Niño status kept on escalating. BMKG forecasted peak of drought season happens starting August and will last until September. Depending on the area affected, Anomalies in Pacific Ocean temperatures may prolong drought to some extent. Therefore, several areas have already impacted by the drought causing water scarcity since June or beginning of August while on the other hand rain still occurs on several area. While the drought peak is not reaching the peak yet, due to the anomalies, some area may experience drought up until October or November. Moreover, BMKG forecasts indicated a high probability that several Indonesian provinces will see rainfall intensity of around 0-20mm below normal during August and September 2023. BMKG has circulated an early warning of potential drought causing water scarcity, particularly in Java and Bali, and the southern part of Sumatra. While on the field, several areas especially in East Java, Banten and Central Java provinces, already declared drought emergency alert even before the BMKG early warning circulated and water scarcity already reported in the area. On the other hand, drought season has impacted crop production in West Papua and affecting food security in the area.
Based on PMI situation reports and other resources such as social media, news and articles, water scarcity has been broadly reported. [...] Based on secondary data review and situation at the field, there are approximately 1.2 million people affected by the drought. The number would escalate as drought will last up until September to October according to BKMG forecast. (IFRC, 7 Sep 2023)
Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) reported 1,185 disasters between July and September 2023, of which majority are drought related. This number is significantly higher compared to the same period in 2022. [...] According to the National Food Agency (NFA), more than half of all provinces in Indonesia were considered food secure by September 2023. Out of 34 provinces, 22 provinces were categorized as stable. 12 provinces were being monitored for possible deterioration for its food security and nutrition situation, compared to 3 last year. The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) predicted that the ongoing El Niño conditions and its resulting climate conditions over Indonesia is likely to have implications on rice planting and production, even with the regular start of rainy season in November 2023. Additionally, delayed onset of the rainy season could potentially result in reduced rice production by late 2023 and early 2024. (WFP, 19 Dec 2023)
According to BMKG, starting in March 2024, the El Niño index will continue to weaken towards a neutral level until the end of the year. Based on the modeling, more and more areas, especially the northern part of Indonesia, will start to experience rainfall or even heavy rainfall. As the phenomenon continues, rainfall, in theory, cannot be the sole indicator of the end of El Niño. Thus, further forecasts will be published based on monthly weather and climate monitoring throughout Indonesia. (IFRC, 14 Mar 2024)
Disaster description
Indonesia: Drought - 2023-2024
The El Niño phenomenon has contributed to a prolonged dry season, resulting in crop failure and drought in the Agandugume and Lambewi sub-districts in Puncak District, Central Papua Province. An Emergency Response Status for drought events in the affected sub-districts was declared by the Regent of Puncak District, effective from 7 June to 7 August 2023. According to Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD District Puncak – Central Papua), some 7,500 people (1,800 families) are reportedly experiencing hunger as of 29 July. Essential aid, including food items, non-food items and emergency shelter kits have been distributed by the BPBD Puncak district authorities with support from the Indonesian National Army (TNI) and the Ministry of Social Affairs. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) estimates that this dry season will persist until September 2023. (OCHA, 2 Aug 2023)
According to BMKG, climate phenomena recorded in Pacific Ocean waters in May and June of 2023 triggered El Niño starting June, which further causing the region to feel warmer. Anomalies in Pacific Ocean temperatures have been growing, with the index reaching 0.8, concerningly close to the threshold of 1, at which point the El Niño status goes from “Weak” to “Moderate”. Currently, trends show a consistent increase and by the end of August El Niño status kept on escalating. BMKG forecasted peak of drought season happens starting August and will last until September. Depending on the area affected, Anomalies in Pacific Ocean temperatures may prolong drought to some extent. Therefore, several areas have already impacted by the drought causing water scarcity since June or beginning of August while on the other hand rain still occurs on several area. While the drought peak is not reaching the peak yet, due to the anomalies, some area may experience drought up until October or November. Moreover, BMKG forecasts indicated a high probability that several Indonesian provinces will see rainfall intensity of around 0-20mm below normal during August and September 2023. BMKG has circulated an early warning of potential drought causing water scarcity, particularly in Java and Bali, and the southern part of Sumatra. While on the field, several areas especially in East Java, Banten and Central Java provinces, already declared drought emergency alert even before the BMKG early warning circulated and water scarcity already reported in the area. On the other hand, drought season has impacted crop production in West Papua and affecting food security in the area.
Based on PMI situation reports and other resources such as social media, news and articles, water scarcity has been broadly reported. [...] Based on secondary data review and situation at the field, there are approximately 1.2 million people affected by the drought. The number would escalate as drought will last up until September to October according to BKMG forecast. (IFRC, 7 Sep 2023)
Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) reported 1,185 disasters between July and September 2023, of which majority are drought related. This number is significantly higher compared to the same period in 2022. [...] According to the National Food Agency (NFA), more than half of all provinces in Indonesia were considered food secure by September 2023. Out of 34 provinces, 22 provinces were categorized as stable. 12 provinces were being monitored for possible deterioration for its food security and nutrition situation, compared to 3 last year. The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) predicted that the ongoing El Niño conditions and its resulting climate conditions over Indonesia is likely to have implications on rice planting and production, even with the regular start of rainy season in November 2023. Additionally, delayed onset of the rainy season could potentially result in reduced rice production by late 2023 and early 2024. (WFP, 19 Dec 2023)
According to BMKG, starting in March 2024, the El Niño index will continue to weaken towards a neutral level until the end of the year. Based on the modeling, more and more areas, especially the northern part of Indonesia, will start to experience rainfall or even heavy rainfall. As the phenomenon continues, rainfall, in theory, cannot be the sole indicator of the end of El Niño. Thus, further forecasts will be published based on monthly weather and climate monitoring throughout Indonesia. (IFRC, 14 Mar 2024)